Daily Archives: April 7, 2020

Quarantine Questionnaire: Did Jesus Think He Was God? — Cold Case Christianity

Take advantage of the quarantine to learn more about the case for God’s existence, the reliability of the Bible and the nature of the Christian worldview

Did Jesus Think He was God? (Video)

J. Warner Wallace answers questions about Christianity in his “Think Like a Detective” series on RightNow Media, the “Netflix of Christian Bible Studies”. In this video, J. Warner discusses the language Jesus used when describing Himself. Did His words demonstrate what He believed about Himself?

The Circumstantial Statements of Jesus’ Divinity

Even if you’re inclined to deny that Jesus ever directly said He was God, I think it’s unreasonable to argue against this indirect, circumstantial case.

BONUS ARTICLE (for overachievers):

Jesus Specifically Said, “I am God”

When Jesus took on God’s holy title as his own, He was stating the modern equivalent of “I am God”.

1. Why do you think some people deny that Jesus thought or spoke of Himself as God?



2. From the video, summarize the difference between the way prophets spoke to their followers and Jesus spoke to His followers:



3. From the first article, list three ways Jesus spoke as though He is God:



4. Why is Jesus’ statement in John 8:23-24 so demonstrative of His Deity?



5. How can we be certain that Jesus’ use of “I am” was interpreted by his hearers as a claim of Deity?



Quarantine Questionnaire: Did Jesus Think He Was God? — Cold Case Christianity

WARNING: I Can No Longer Say That Bill Gates Planned Global Vaccinations And The ID2020 Digital Identification Are Not The Mark Of The Beast — Now The End Begins

Yes, it is possible, and on many levels, highly likely that the proposed global vaccinations combined with the ID2020 digital identification being forced on us from Bill Gates could very well be the coming Mark of the Beast.

On our Sunday night radio bible study program, I talked about Bill Gates and his planned global vaccinationsand his connection to the ID2020 Alliance to give everyone a digital ID, and I said that while I didn’t think those things necessarily constituted the Mark of the Beast from Revelation 13, I strongly advised people to reject both the vaccine and the ID2020 digital identification. But in the 48 hours since that program, the Lord has shown me in no uncertain terms, that I didn’t go far enough, that it could very well be the Mark. Let me tell you why.

“And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads: And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name. Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six.” Revelation 13:16-18 (KJB)

When Sunday’s radio bible study was over, I was very happy. We had a huge global audience of bible believers coming to learn from the word and fellowship with each other in our NTEB family, the show felt like it went great, Jesus was lifted up, everything was good. But there was a quiet, little check in my spirit about the things I had just talked about. Yes, I had faithfully laid out and exposed all the elements of Bill Gates plan to force a global vaccine upon every human being, connected him to ID2020 and their digital ID, and warned everyone to reject both of those things, but said that while all this was evil, I did not think it was the Mark of the Beast. After the show was over, I began to wonder if that was the right thing to say. That was Strike 1, and that little check in my spirit grew louder.

Yesterday morning, while reading some comments on YouTube where we also post the programs, one or two of the commentors blasted me for not connecting it to the Mark of the Beast. They were not mean spirited or aggressive, just told me I was wrong, I wanted to disagree with them but could not. Strike 2, the check in my spirit speaking louder.

Just about an hour ago, my good buddy and fellow bible believer ‘sword sharpener’ Andy called me up to say he had listened to Sunday’s program, more than once, and wanted to tell me he felt the Lord telling him to tell me to reconsider my assessment of Bill Gates and his plans. He had no idea I had been struggling with it for the past 36 hours. I was instantly convicted and received what the Lord put on his heart to tell me. Strike 3, the check in my spirit ringing out loud and clear.

There is no such thing as a ‘strike 4’ but if there was look closely at the graphic I made for this article, what does it look like to you? They say a picture is worth a thousand words, that picture looks to me like someone working to bring in the Mark of the Beast, and who has been working diligently behind the scenes to put all the pieces in place.

Strike 4. So OK, game on, here we go.

Microsoft, in a recent announcement regarding using blockchain technology for decentralized identification further articulated its support of this initiative stating, “Each of us needs a digital identity we own, one which securely and privately stores all elements of our digital identity.”

The ID2020 Alliance has launched a new digital identity program at its annual summit in New York, in collaboration with the Government of Bangladesh, vaccine alliance Gavi, and new partners in government, academia, and humanitarian relief.

Bill Gates And The Mark Of The Beast

In the audio clips I played of Bill Gates and his interview with Trevor Noah on The Daily Show, there was something Gates said that I heard, but it did not sink in. This is what Brother Andy had called me specifically for to have me consider. Bill Gates mentions an “18 month time frame” that it will take to get all 7 of his ‘vaccine factories’ (I get a mental picture of Auschwitz when I say that phrase, vaccine factories, it’s so cold, dark and evil sounding. Like Zyklon B. Ugh.), and that his plan for the 7 vaccine factories will be connected to ‘world governments’.

“It seems, though, that money isn’t able to fix this problem,” Noah said. “It seems like governments around the world are trying everything they can, but it doesn’t seem like it can be fixed. What are you hoping to achieve in this moment in time?”

“Governments will eventually come up with lots of money for these things, but they don’t know where to direct it, they can’t move as quickly,” Bill Gates replied.

He said that the biggest issue right now is the American health care system’s access to testing in order to pinpoint who has the disease and who does not. He added, however, that the money he has pledged can “help accelerate things” right now. “We did fund some things to be more prepared, like a vaccine effort,” Bill Gates said.

“So for example there’s — of all the vaccine constructs, the seven most promising of those — even though we’ll end up picking at most two of them — we’re gonna fund factories for all seven,” he said. “To get to the best case, that people like myself and Dr. Fauci are saying is about 18 months, we need to do safety and efficacy and build manufacturing. … And so we’ll abandon — you know, it will be a few billion dollars we’ll waste on manufacturing for the constructs that don’t get picked because something else is better,” Gates continued. READ MORE

That’s what I want you to focus on, as Andy told me, don’t look at it as something happening now, look at it like something that will take 18 months to come to fruition. A year and a half is an eternity, you can get an enormous amount accomplished in that time period with the cooperation of the world’s governments, the United Nations, and hundreds of billions of dollars at your disposal.

They Have Already Locked Us Down

Look at how quickly and easily they have locked us down, crashed the economy, and quarantined nearly the entire world. That’s Step One, the second step will be to then force us all to take the vaccination as the “only way” to stop the virus. After everyone has taken the vaccination Bill Gates has created, then everyone will be given a digital ID. The Mark of the Beast system come to life. Adding “upgrades” to it later, like connecting it with buying and selling will be a natural next step. Oh wait, ID2020 has already done that, take a look. Hello, Mark Of The Beast, we see you.

ID2020 announces its first two Certification Mark digital identity solutions: Kiva Protocol and Gravity.Earth.

“Now we beseech you, brethren, by the coming of our Lord Jesus Christ, and by our gathering together unto him, That ye be not soon shaken in mind, or be troubled, neither by spirit, nor by word, nor by letter as from us, as that the day of Christ is at hand. Let no man deceive you by any means: for that day shall not come, except there come a falling away first, and that man of sin be revealed, the son of perdition; Who opposeth and exalteth himself above all that is called God, or that is worshipped; so that he as God sitteth in the temple of God, shewing himself that he is God.” 2 Thessalonians 2:1-4 (KJB)

So in the context of that timeframe, Bill Gates own timeframe that I had glossed over too quickly, is it possible to have the build-up to the Mark of the Beast, see who Antichrist is as Paul says we will in 2 Thessalonians 2, and still have the Pretribulation Rapture take place before the Mark of the Beast is rolled out? Yep, it surely is possible. It is absolutely possible that Bill Gates could be the Antichrist, or at least the forerunner to Antichrist. I can’t believe the words are coming out of my mouth, but yes, it is. It is possible. Could the global vaccinations combined with the ID2020 digital identification system be the actual Mark of the Beast, or the forerunner to it.? To quote DL Moody, “yes, yes, a thousand times yes!”


Bill Gates has been brewing this evil plan for many years now, and I would like you to read and consider the following:

Did you see the last bullet point? The testing has already begun, Bill Gates has opened the money spigot. You know what the bible says about money.

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation have poured funding into Inovio’s INO-4800 vaccine project

FROM MSN NEWS: A small Pennsylvania biotech company is planning to start injecting healthy volunteers with a potential coronavirus vaccine, after receiving regulatory clearance to start clinical testing. Researchers plan to dose the first person Monday. The experimental vaccine was developed by Inovio Pharmaceuticals, with the effort receiving funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations. Inovio’s candidate, called INO-4800, is the second potential coronavirus vaccine to start human trials in the US. The Massachusetts biotech Moderna started dosing in mid-March for its own safety trial. READ MORE

The Beautiful ‘666’ Mark Of The Beast Windows Smartphone


Now The End Begins has been bringing you stories about Bill Gates and his New World Order nastiness for nearly a decade, but today we are going on record that we are taking our coverage of him to a whole, new level. Yes, the born again Church is absolutely on target to be removed up and out of here in the Pretribulation Rapture, so if you want to get something done for the Lord we highly advise you to DO. IT. NOW. Don’t wait, time is very short.

“And the third angel followed them, saying with a loud voice, If any man worship the beast and his image, and receive his mark in his forehead, or in his hand, The same shall drink of the wine of the wrath of God, which is poured out without mixture into the cup of his indignation; and he shall be tormented with fire and brimstone in the presence of the holy angels, and in the presence of the Lamb: And the smoke of their torment ascendeth up for ever and ever: and they have no rest day nor night, who worship the beast and his image, and whosoever receiveth the mark of his name.” Revelation 14:9-11 (KJB)

The WAR is real, the BATTLE hot, and TIME is short…to the FIGHT!

IT ALL COMES DOWN TO THIS: Whatever you do, do not take any vaccine that comes from one of Bill Gates’ vaccine factories, and do not under any circumstance for anyreason, take anything from ID2020 or any government-issued digital identification tag in any form. They, the various world governments, are going to try and use the coronavirus pandemic to justify forcing people to take a vaccine, and force people to receive a digital ID. They will try these things first in places like India and South Africa where we have lots of people who read NTEB, I am talking to you folks first. Do not take it, do not take any of it. It could very well be the Mark of the Beast. But everyone, in every nation, needs to understand what is truly happening and reject it.

If there was ever an important article we’ve published that needed to go viral immediately, this is it. Please share the information presented here with everyone you know and on every social media platform you have access to.

  • NOTE: For the thousands of you reading this via our email subscription service, please come to the site to read this article. I need you to view the videos I have placed at the bottom of it that do not appear in the email we send out. They are very important, please watch, thank you.

New World Order Elites Henry Kissinger & Bill Gates Call For Mass Vaccination & Global Governance

We are in the middle of the worst global health pandemic of our lives according to the Media, the Government and the United Nations. We are witnessing an unprecedented global lockdown in response to the Coronavirus outbreak known as COVID19. Here is the link mentioned in the video. This video is very, very eye-opening and shows how Bill Gates bought control of the World Health Organization at the United Nations. WATCH THIS VIDEO!!!!

Did Bill Gates & World Economic Forum Predict Coronavirus Outbreak? An Inside Look May Shock You!

In this report we take an inside look at Event 201, which took place in NYC on October 18 2019. Event 201 is a high-level pandemic exercise hosted by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. This is extremely fascinating because this pandemic simulation exercise of coronavirus took place about 6 weeks before the first illness from the coronavirus was actually reported in Wuhan china! That is one hell of a coincidence if you believe in that sort of thing. Another fascinating connection, is the fact that not only did the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation participate in and help set up the pandemic simulation of a coronavirus outbreak, but they just so happen to fund the group who owns the patent to the deadly coronavirus and are already working on a vaccine to solve the current crisis. Again an incredible coincidence…

Bill Gates on Fighting Coronavirus | The Daily Show

Not even hiding it anymore…listen to Noah’s opening remarks and question. Then listen as Bill Gates mentions the 18-month timeline for his 7 vaccine factories. 

Bill Gates Is Fulfilling Bible Prophecy

Everything we see happening right now was foretold in The Bible. The Mark of the Beast is coming and we don’t have much time left. This video tells you all about the QUANTUM DOT TATTOO, you NEED to understand what that is. 

via WARNING: I Can No Longer Say That Bill Gates Planned Global Vaccinations And The ID2020 Digital Identification Are Not The Mark Of The Beast — Now The End Begins

Episcopal Church Reports No Change In Attendance In Recent Weeks — The Babylon Bee

NEW YORK, NY—Most churches have been severely impacted by recent bans on large gatherings, but not the Episcopal Church. Local parishes across the country reported no change in attendance once the ban went into effect.

A report indicated that the Episcopal Church has not been affected by the ban on many people gathering in one place at all, with most churches staying at exactly the same attendance number as before the pandemic.

“Business as usual for us,” said Reverend Macy Bryers of St. Mark’s Episcopal Church in Ryder Falls, Iowa. “We didn’t even know there was a lockdown, to be frank. I was just bringing the message of love and tolerance and Jesus being a good teacher and stuff to the empty pews just like normal. I just tell everyone they don’t really need Jesus or the Bible or God — they just need a positive, can-do attitude and some good, old-fashioned self-esteem.”

“By the way, do you have any idea why people don’t come to church anymore? It’s a total mystery to me.”

Some Episcopalians even reported a slight uptick in attendance as they brought in one or two tech people to run a live stream. Their live streams, however, still got zero views.

via Episcopal Church Reports No Change In Attendance In Recent Weeks — The Babylon Bee

White House Coronavirus Task Force Briefing – 5:00pm ET Livestream… — The Last Refuge

Unfortunately, with President Trump effectively communicating the latest information on the federal efforts to mitigate COVID-19, more corporate U.S. resistance media have decided not to carry the live broadcasts from the White House task force briefings.

Today at 5:00pm ET the White House will hold a briefing for the public and media on the latest mitigation efforts against the coronavirus. [Livestream Links Below]

White House Livestream LinkFox News Livestream LinkFox Business Livestream



via White House Coronavirus Task Force Briefing – 5:00pm ET Livestream… — The Last Refuge

04/07/2020 — Wretched


•Seattle police are asking you to report any racism
•Is the Coronavirus racist?
•Is it worth shutting down New York to save one life?
•Where are the liberal pop-up hospitals?
•Malaysia wants women to stay in their place during the pandemic
•India and China are still cracking down on Christians
•Suicide in the beautiful land of New Zealand
•Faith healers of all faiths are being exposed
•Porn and COVID-19
•Gender dysphoria is up 1500% in Sweden and we think we know why

Download Now (right click and save)

via 04/07/2020 — Wretched

UPDATE: Data Shows US Efforts to Combat China Coronavirus Crushed Economy — But Brazil and Sweden Have Similar Fatality Numbers With Open Economies — The Gateway Pundit

While the US shuts down all commerce for weeks and destroys the economy, other countries like Sweden and Brazil are doing the opposite and allowing the China coronavirus to run its course. 

Data indicates there no material differences in fatalities between the three countries leading the casual observer to question why is the US killing its economy?

The US continues to prevent nearly all commerce from occurring to combat the China coronavirus.  Many other countries are following suit.  But some countries like Sweden and Brazil are keeping their countries open for business.  Data shows that the fatalities related to the coronavirus in these countries are very similar to those in the US.

Sweden announced they would pretty much keep their economy open for business when the China coronavirus became a threat:

We also reported that Brazilian Leader Jair Bolsonaro refuses to lock-down Brazil’s economy to fight off the China coronavirus.

So how are Sweden and Brazil doing when compared to the US with their strategy to combat the coronavirus?

Below are today’s numbers related to the China coronavirus:

  1. The US has identified the most cases of the China coronavirus when compared to Brazil and Sweden but all three countries are in the top 20 in the world that have cases identified.  The US’s number indicates it has tested more people and also it is a much larger country based on population than Sweden and even Brazil.
  2. Due to its testing efforts the US has the highest number of cases per million of all three countries (US – 1190, Brazil – 65 and Sweden – 762).
  3. Sweden has the largest number of fatalities per million in their country (Sweden – 59, US – 38 and Brazil – 3).  The world average is 10.5 people per million.
  4. The US has the lowest percent of deaths per case of the three nations (US – 3.2%, Brazil – 4.9% and Sweden – 7.6%).  Two of these nations are under the world average of 5.7%.

The data is somewhat mixed and there are various reasons for the differences, but this isolated review based on the current data indicates that there is no need to lockdown economies in an effort to combat the China coronavirus. 

The only thing that is eliminated by implementing these radical social engineering actions are economic commerce and prosperity.

via UPDATE: Data Shows US Efforts to Combat China Coronavirus Crushed Economy — But Brazil and Sweden Have Similar Fatality Numbers With Open Economies — The Gateway Pundit

BREAKING… President Trump: We Are Looking at Defunding “China Centric” World Health Organization (VIDEO) — The Gateway Pundit

President Trump today announced the White House is “looking at” defunding the “China centric” World Health Organization.

The World Health Organization in January found “no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission” of the coronavirus.

Hat Tip Marooned in Marin.

It turned out they were just defending China.
The information was completely inaccurate.

Today tens of thousands of people are dead around the globe thanks to China’s false reporting on the disease.

The Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, reportedly promotes what China wants him to promote.

At the Illustrated Primer website, Yaacov Apelbaumshares the links between the Director General and China.  For example, in late January he met with China’s President Xi:

Apelbaum reports:

On February 15, 2020, the director-general of the World Health Organisation (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, addressed the Munich Security Conference.  At that time, there were only about 60K cases of Covid-19 in China and about 500 in the rest of the world. Tedros was more concerned with misinformation than with containment. In his address, he said:

“We’re not just fighting an epidemic; we’re fighting an infodemic. Fake news spreads faster and more easily than this virus, and is just as dangerous.” And if we don’t tackle this, he went on, “we are headed down a dark path that leads nowhere but division and disharmony.”

Now the Director General is reporting whatever China wishes.  As noted above by Apelbaum, China has invested millions in Ethiopia.  This may be in part why Tedros has made the following statements about the WHO:

Given the misinformation about the novel coronavirus epidemic, WHO has communicated with some companies including Google to ensure that the public will get the authoritative information from the WHO.”

“Travel restrictions [to and from China] can have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit.”

“The lockdown of people is unprecedented in public health history, so it is certainly not a recommendation the WHO has made.”

“The WHO highly appreciates the tremendous efforts China has made to contain the epidemic.”


Tedros is who the world is relying on to provide accurate information on the coronavirus.

Today President Trump told reporters the White House is “looking into” defunding the Chinese centric WHO.

The liberal reporters hated to hear that.  They would rather defend communist China than support this US president.

The Republicans introduced a bill to defund the WHO, unless Tedros resigns.

via BREAKING… President Trump: We Are Looking at Defunding “China Centric” World Health Organization (VIDEO) — The Gateway Pundit

These Very Alarming Numbers Show How People Are “Coping” With The Coronavirus Pandemic — The Economic Collapse

It is during times of great crisis that we find out who we really are.  Now that strict “shelter-in-place” orders have been instituted all over the world, most people have a lot more free time than usual.  Of course some are using all of this extra free time for constructive purposes, but many others have decided that “self-medicating” is the best way to “cope” with this coronavirus pandemic.  When under great pressure, people tend to gravitate to whatever is most important to them, and that is why what we are witnessing during this pandemic is so alarming.  Just check out these new numbers

The virtual-sex trade has got a lift: Pornhub, the leading adult entertainment website, saw a near-12% increase in global traffic from Feb. 24 to March 17. British lingerie chain Ann Summers said sex toy sales were up 27% in the last week of March compared to the same period a year ago, with its quietest vibrator fast becoming its best seller.

Self-medicating is all the rage. U.S. states including California, Colorado, Oregon and Alaska where cannabis is legal have reported 50% sales increases from March 16 and March 22, according to Flowhub. Online booze sales in the United States rose 243% in the week ending March 21, according to market research firm Nielsen. Binge buying drove British alcohol sales up 22% in March, according to Kantar.

Of course some of the sales increases can be explained by the fact that people have been stocking up on just about everything in recent days.

At this point, most Americans have suddenly become “preppers”, and online grocery delivery services have been absolutely overwhelmed

As the crisis hit, delivery orders surged as millions of Americans stayed home. During the week of March 2, even before some cities and states imposed “stay at home” orders, Instacart, Amazon, and Walmart grocery delivery sales all jumped by at least two-thirds from the year before, according to Earnest Research. Instacart, a platform that partners with more than 25,000 stores in North America, says orders in more recent weeks have surged 150%.

As a result, customers in hard-hit New York City are waiting days to schedule deliveries that usually take just hours.

Needless to say, the law of supply and demand tells us that as demand for basic essentials goes up it is inevitable that prices will rise as well.

And we are already starting to see this.  In fact, it is being reported that the wholesale price of eggs has shot up 180 percent…

If you’re used to starting your day with coffee, orange juice, bacon, toast and some eggs, brace yourself – the price of wholesale eggs in the U.S. has skyrocketed to a shocking 180 percent from its regular price. And reports reveal that increased buying due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is to blame.

As long as fear of the coronavirus persists there will continue to be more “panic buying”, and shortages will begin to emerge.

In fact, Johnson & Johnson is publicly admitting that there is already a serious shortage of Tylenol

A spokesperson for Johnson & Johnson, the makers of Tylenol, acknowledged the shortage and said the company is working to overcome it.

“We are experiencing record high demand for Tylenol, and despite our producing and shipping product at historic highs, we are experiencing a temporary shortage in some regions in the US,” said Kim Montagnino, Global Corporate Media Relations Senior Director. “We are committed to maintaining our increased production, including running lines up to 24/7 to maximize supply.”

And this may come as a surprise to many of you, but according to USA Today we are also facing a very serious shortage of webcams as well…

Logitech, the company that dominates webcam sales, is sold out of every one it makes. Amazon and Best Buy are out of stock. And price gougers on eBay are selling used models for as high as $420, or more than twice as much as the most expensive Logitech model, the $199 Brio.

“Global demand for webcams is needed from all remote workers, students and in the health care space,” notes analyst Jeremiah Owyang, who himself was able to snag a unit in early March, before they sold out.

With so many people working from home now, demand for webcams has spiked like never before, and it is unclear when they will be widely available again.

Now that most of the country has been locked down, economic activity has come to a standstill, and many Americans are starting to become very desperate for things to return to “normal”.

But even though most Americans are staying home, this virus continues to spread.

In New York City, nearly 20 percent of the entire police force was out sick on Monday…

On Monday, April 6, 2020, 6,974 uniformed members of the NYPD were on the department’s sick report which accounts for 19.3% of the uniformed workforce.

1,935 uniformed members and 293 civilian members of the NYPD have tested positive for the coronavirus.

And on Tuesday the death toll in New York City surged to the highest level yet even though a “shelter-in-place” order has been in place for quite some time now.

That is not good at all.

What makes this even more frightening is that the number of deaths in New York is actually being substantially undercounted because the only coronavirus victims that are included in the official death toll are those that were tested before they died

Only those tested before they die are counted as COVID-19 victims, a New York City councilman said Monday, sparking fears the actual death toll could be far higher than the 3,400 already recorded.

Mark Levine tweeted: ‘Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic.’

So what is the true death toll?

We don’t really know, but what we do know is that the number of people “dying at home” in New York City is now close to 10 times higher than normal

But another 200 city residents are now dying at home each day, compared to 20 to 25 such deaths before the pandemic, said Aja Worthy-Davis, a spokeswoman for the medical examiner’s office. And an untold number of them are unconfirmed.

Overall, the number of confirmed deaths continues to rise all over the country at a very disturbing pace.

The very first confirmed death from the coronavirus in the United States was announced at the very end of February, and now just over a month later the numbers are really getting crazy

The number of Americans who have died from coronavirus has nearly doubled in the first week of April alone compared to last month’s entire death toll.

The death toll from the pandemic now stands at 11,000 with more than 368,000 confirmed infections across the United States.

Figures show the number of fatalities has increased drastically by 7,000 in the first six days of April.

Of course most people are assuming that this pandemic will eventually fade (true) and that life in America will soon return to normal (definitely not true at all).

We have entered a time when everything that can be shaken will be shaken, and our world will never be the same again.

Some will respond to adversity by becoming the best people that they can possibly become, while others will “cope” by wallowing in depression, despair and very self-destructive addictions.

You can’t control global events as they spin out of control, but you can control how you respond to them.

You were born for such a time as this, and I encourage all of you to embrace the great challenges that have now been put in front of us.

via These Very Alarming Numbers Show How People Are “Coping” With The Coronavirus Pandemic — The Economic Collapse

Los Angeles Makes Face Masks Mandatory – Services Refused for Non-Compliant Citizens… — The Last Refuge

Comrades, the Los Angeles Ministry of Coronavirus Compliance has raised the standard, be prepared…. First they released 1,700 inmates.  Then the LA Sheriff shut down all the gun stores, saying they were not essential services. Then Mayor Garcetti announced he was shutting down water & electricity for anyone who attempts to defy the stay at home edicts.

Today it is announced…. Beginning April 10th, and extending until the directive is lifted, covering your face is mandatory in the Los Angeles, California Directorate.  Any citizen refusing to comply will be denied services:

Mercury News – Cloth face coverings will need to be worn at grocery and drug stores, construction sites, taxis and other essential businesses under a new order going into effect Friday, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said.

“If you’re shopping for groceries, if you’re picking up your prescription or if you’re visiting any other essential business you will need to cover your face,” Garcetti said during a daily briefing on Tuesday, April 7.

“And if you’re not covering your face by Friday morning,” the mayor said, “an essential business can refuse you service.”

The order goes into effect Friday, April 10, at midnight. (read more)

At first you are denied services.

Next you are fined for failing to comply.

Then comes the arrests.

All of it, soon coming to a city and state near you.

Comrade, your cooperation is appreciated….

via Los Angeles Makes Face Masks Mandatory – Services Refused for Non-Compliant Citizens… — The Last Refuge

Tucker Carlson Questions Government Decisions Using Flawed Statistical Models… — The Last Refuge

Earlier this evening on Fox News, Tucker Carlson outlined a disconnect between dire national health models that predicted mass death and a reality not close to predictions.

[Review IHME Coronavirus Model HERE]

As Carlson notes there are few professional explaining why there is such a significant difference. Additionally, if we have shut down our economy based on models that were incorrect, well, when are we going to re-open our economy? Lots of questions… and unfortunately no-one seems to be allowed to ask them.


In the final analysis this crisis is going to come down to a very tribal set of decisions about when to re-engage the operations of U.S. society. Additionally, what changes and rules will be instituted as a result of some areas wanting to re-open, while others demand the continuance of an extended shut-down.

Red states -vs- Blue states. Urban -vs- Rural. Tribalism making the rules for those within specific geographic boundaries. That part of post COVID-19 panic is inherently predictable.

However, the disparity will need to be reconciled; and for that solution the Administrative State will likely demand the application of science as a solution. We can already hear these arguments within the discussions.  Totalitarianism always shifts the discussion to science when disconcerting conversations are unavoidable. [See the Fabians]

The solution will be a COVID-19 vaccine; and to re-enter a full society everyone will be expected to get vaccinated to secure all other members of society. However, given the pesky issues with liberty, a mandated vaccine protocol will probably not pass muster.

Therefore those who wish to have unrestricted access to the entire country will be those who accept the vaccine. Those who do not accept the vaccine will have less choices.

Again, the solution returns to this outlook.

If you accept the vaccine, the state will register your compliance. Or not; it will be your choice. However, your access to society will also be based on your decision.

That’s what is coming at the end of this…

Choose wisely.


If you wish to cross between boundary zones you will need to carry a “vaccination passport” as outlined by State Advisory Minister Bill Gates.

There is no cause for alarm.

All of the best citizens will be doing it.

Your vaccination passport will allow you free travel throughout the U.S.

via Tucker Carlson Questions Government Decisions Using Flawed Statistical Models… — The Last Refuge

April 7th The D. L. Moody Year Book

I will be with him in trouble.—Psalm 91:15.

IT is a great thing to have a place of resort in the time of trouble. How people get on without the God of the Bible is a mystery to me. If I didn’t have such a refuge, a place to go and pour out my heart to God in such times, I don’t know what I would do. It seems as if I would go out of my mind. But to think, when the heart is burdened, we can go and pour it into His ear, and then have the answer come back, “I will be with Him,” there is comfort in that!

I thank God for the old Book. I thank God for this old promise. It is as sweet and fresh to-day as it has ever been. Thank God, none of those promises are out of date, or grown stale. They are as fresh and vigorous and young and sweet as ever.[1]


[1] Moody, D. L. (1900). The D. L. Moody Year Book: A Living Daily Message from the Words of D. L. Moody. (E. M. Fitt, Ed.) (p. 70). East Northfield, MA: The Bookstore.

April—7 The Poor Man’s Evening Portion

And the scripture was fulfilled, which saith, And he was numbered with the transgressors.—Mark 15:28.

Look up, my soul, to the cross, and behold thy Lord hanging with two thieves; yea, in the middle of them, as if the greatest malefactor of the three; and, what is the most awful part of the subject, not only was he thus considered by the Jewish rabble, but, as the sinner’s representative, Jesus was thus beheld in Jehovah’s view, “numbered with the transgressors,” and virtually, the great surety and sponsor of them all. Pause, my soul, as thou readest this scripture, and as thou beholdest it fulfilled on the cross. Will it not undeniably follow, that if Christ was so reckoned and so numbered, then it must have been, not for himself, for he had no sin, but for his people; and if made sin, and a curse, surely he hath taken away both sin and the curse, by the sacrifice of himself, that they might be made the righteousness of God in him? There is one circumstance in this representation of Jesus being reckoned with the transgressors as a sin and a curse, yea, sustaining the whole of sin and the curse in his own sacred person, that is particularly striking; I mean, that amidst all the shadowy representations under the law, the only type on this subject, and a most decisive one it was, is that of the “brazen serpent.” Of all the creatures of God’s creation, it was the serpent only that was pronounced cursed at the fall; and, therefore, though the blood of many beasts may be, and indeed was, made typical of redemption by the sacrifice of Christ, yet none but the serpent could represent Christ as a curse for his people. There is somewhat very striking in this. Christ, in redeeming us from the curse of the law, must be represented as a curse for us; the serpent, therefore, the cursed beast, shall be lifted up in the wilderness, and Jesus himself will graciously explain it: “As Moses lifted up the serpent in the wilderness, so must the Son of Man be lifted up, that whosoever believeth in him shall not perish, but have eternal life.” (John 3:14, 15.) What a wonderful event! Who, but for the scripture, and the teaching of the Holy Ghost, would have been able to trace the affinity? “My righteous servant,” saith Jehovah, “shall justify many, for he shall bear their iniquities.” He is, therefore, numbered with the transgressors. (Isaiah 53:11, 12.) And agreeably to this, all the circumstances attending this sustaining of the curse shall correspond; a drop of water is denied to none but the cursed in hell; Jesus, therefore, in his thirst, shall be denied it also. If malefactors, under the curse, have no one to mitigate their sorrows, here again Jesus shall be the same; for in his sufferings “all his disciples forsook him and fled.” Is the darkness in hell an aggravation of the miseries of the cursed there? Thus also shall it be in the extreme agonies of Jesus; for darkness covered the earth during his crucifixion, from the sixth to the ninth hour. Yea, and above all, the sense of divine manifestation shall be withdrawn, as from those in the regions of everlasting misery, who have no sense of the divine presence, but in his wrath. So that Jesus needed not to go down into hell to suffer the torments of the damned; for, being numbered with the transgressors, and standing forth to the view of Jehovah as sin and a curse for his people, the waters of the great deep were broken up to overwhelm his precious soul; and in those tremendous hours, all the cataracts of divine wrath were poured out upon him, until the holy patient sufferer was constrained to cry out, in that dolorous cry, “All thy waves and thy billows are gone over me!” (Psalm 42:7.) Lamb of God! is it thus at Golgotha thou wert numbered with the transgressors? And was it thus that scripture was fulfilled? Oh, for grace so to view thee, so to fix and feast my soul upon thee, that, while conscious that thy holy soul knew no sin, yet was made sin for me, I that know no righteousness, and truly have none, may be made the righteousness of God in thee![1]


[1] Hawker, R. (1845). The Poor Man’s Evening Portion (A New Edition, pp. 102–104). Philadelphia: Thomas Wardle.

April 7, 2020 Evening Verse Of The Day

  1. For he hath broken the gates of brass, and cut the bars of iron in sunder.” This verse belongs to that which precedes it, and sums up the mercy experienced by captives. The Lord breaks the strongest gates and bars when the time comes to set free his prisoners: and spiritually the Lord Jesus has broken the most powerful of spiritual bonds and made us free indeed. Brass and iron are as tow before the flame of Jesus’ love. The gates of hell shall not prevail against us, neither shall the bars of the grave detain us. Those of us who have experienced his redeeming power must and will praise the Lord for the wonders of his grace displayed on our behalf.

17 Fools because of their transgression, and because of their iniquities, are afflicted.

18 Their soul abhorreth all manner of meat; and they draw near unto the gates of death.

19 Then they cry unto the Lord in their trouble, and he saveth them out of their distresses.

20 He sent his word, and healed them, and delivered them from their destructions.

21 Oh that men would praise the Lord for his goodness, and for his wonderful works to the children of men!

22 And let them sacrifice the sacrifices of thanksgiving, and declare his works with rejoicing.[1]

[1] Spurgeon, C. H. (n.d.). The treasury of David: Psalms 88-110 (Vol. 4, pp. 402–403). London; Edinburgh; New York: Marshall Brothers.

April 7 Streams in the Desert

Their strength is to sit still.” (Isa. 30:7)

IN order really to know God, inward stillness is absolutely necessary. I remember when I first learned this. A time of great emergency had risen in my life, when every part of my being seemed to throb with anxiety, and when the necessity for immediate and vigorous action seemed overpowering; and yet circumstances were such that I could do nothing, and the person who could, would not stir.

For a little while it seemed as if I must fly to pieces with the inward turmoil, when suddenly the still small voice whispered in the depths of my soul, “Be still, and know that I am God.” The word was with power, and I hearkened. I composed my body to perfect stillness, and I constrained my troubled spirit into quietness, and looked up and waited; and then I did “know” that it was God, God even in the very emergency and in my helplessness to meet it; and I rested in Him. It was an experience that I would not have missed for worlds; and I may add also, that out of this stillness seemed to arise a power to deal with the emergency, that very soon brought it to a successful issue. I learned then effectually that my “strength was to sit still.”—Hannah Whitall Smith.

There is a perfect passivity which is not indolence. It is a living stillness born of trust. Quiet tension is not trust. It is simply compressed anxiety.

Not in the tumult of the rending storm,

Not in the earthquake or devouring flame;

But in the hush that could all fear transform,

The still, small whisper to the prophet came.

O Soul, keep silence on the mount of God,

Though cares and needs throb around thee like a sea;

From supplications and desires unshod,

Be still, and hear what God shall say to thee.

All fellowship hath interludes of rest,

New strength maturing in each poise of power;

The sweetest Alleluias of the blest

Are silent, for the space of half an hour.

O rest, in utter quietude of soul,

Abandon words, leave prayer and praise awhile;

Let thy whole being, hushed in His control,

Learn the full meaning of His voice and smile.

Not as an athlete wrestling for a crown,

Not taking Heaven by violence of will;

But with thy Father as a child sit down,

And know the bliss that follows His “Be Still!”

Mary Rowles Jarvis.[1]


[1] Cowman, L. B. (1925). Streams in the Desert (pp. 108–109). Los Angeles, CA: The Oriental Missionary Society.

April 7 The Interpreter: Spurgeon’s Devotional Bible

April 7.—Morning. [Or July 12.]
“I have given Him for a leader and commander to the people.”

Judges 11:5–10; 12–21; 23–28

AND when the children of Ammon made war against Israel, the elders of Gilead went to fetch Jephthah out of the land of Tob:

And they said unto Jephthah, Come, and be our captain, that we may fight with the children of Ammon.

And Jephthah said unto the elders of Gilead, Did not ye hate me, and expel me out of my father’s house? and why are ye come unto me now when ye are in distress?

We should mind whom we slight, for upon those very persons we may come to be dependent.

And Jephthah said unto the elders of Gilead, If ye bring me home again to fight against the children of Ammon, and the Lord deliver them before me, shall I be your head?

10 And the elders of Gilead said unto Jephthah, The Lord be witness between us, if we do not so according to thy words.

Jephthah asked no more than had been publicly promised, and was naturally his due. So when the Lord Jesus saves us from our sins, it is but just that he should reign over us.

12 ¶ And Jephthah sent messengers unto the king of the children of Ammon, saying, What hast thou to do with me, that thou art come against me to fight in my land?

Israel might not wantonly make war with Ammon, therefore Jephthah tries first an appeal to reason. Let us follow peace with all men.

13 And the king of the children of Ammon answered unto the messengers of Jephthah, Because Israel took away my land, when they came up out of Egypt, from Arnon even unto Jabbok, and unto Jordan: now therefore restore those lands again peaceably. (This was a mere pretence, but diplomacy abounds with falsehoods. The Ammonites had lost the territory in war with the Amorites, and when Israel captured it from the Amorites, it became theirs.)

14–21 And Jephthah sent messengers again unto the king of the children of Ammon: (To try once more what argument would do, he stated the facts of the case:) And said unto him, Thus saith Jephthah, Israel took not away the land of Moab, nor the land of the children of Ammon: But when Israel came up from Egypt, and walked through the wilderness unto the Red sea, and came to Kadesh; Then Israel sent messengers unto the king of Edom, saying, Let me, I pray thee, pass through thy land: but the king of Edom would not hearken thereto. And in like manner they sent unto the king of Moab: but he would not consent: and Israel abode in Kadesh. Then they went along through the wilderness, and compassed the land of Edom, and the land of Moab, And Israel sent messengers unto Sihon king of the Amorites, the king of Heshbon; and Israel said unto him, Let us pass, we pray thee, through thy land into my place. But Sihon trusted not Israel to pass through his coast: but Sihon gathered all his people together, and fought against Israel. And the Lord God of Israel delivered Sihon and-all his people into the hand of Israel, and they smote them: so Israel possessed all the land of the Amorites, the inhabitants of that country.

23 So now the Lord God of Israel hath dispossessed the Amorites from before his people Israel, and shouldest thou possess it?

24 Wilt not thou possess that which Chemosh thy god giveth thee to possess? So whomsoever the Lord our God shall drive out from before us, them will we possess. (He argued upon their own grounds, and would have convinced them had they been capable of justice.)

25, 26 And now art thou any thing better than Balak the son of Zippor, king of Moab? did he ever strive against Israel, or did he ever fight against them, While Israel dwelt in Heshbon and her towns, and in Aroer and her towns, and in all the cities that be along by the coasts of Arnon, three hundred years? why therefore did ye not recover them within that time? (Undisputed possession for three hundred years was certainly a good title enough. It was rather late to revive a dormant claim.)

27 Wherefore I have not sinned against thee, but thou doest me wrong to war against me: the Lord the Judge be judge this day between the children of Israel and the children of Ammon. (He did well to make his appeal to heaven. When right is on our side, we may fearlessly leave results with God. If we have done all we can to make peace, and men will not act justly, the sin must rest with them.)

28 Howbeit the king of the children of Ammon hearkened not unto the words of Jephthah which he sent him.

Lord, for the glory of thy name,

Vouchsafe me now the victory;

Weakness itself, thou knowest I am,

And cannot share the praise with thee:

Because I now can nothing do,

Jesus, do all the work alone,

And bring my soul triumphant through,

To wave its palm before thy throne.


What power against a worm can stand

Arm’d with Jehovah’s sword?

For all who bow to Christ’s command

Are champions of the Lord.

Arm’d with his word and Spirit’s might

We shall the battle gain,

And sin, that tempting Midianite,

Shall be for ever slain.


Father, though late, I turn to thee,

With all my idols part;

O let my helpless misery

Affect thy pitying heart.

Grieved at thine ancient people’s woe,

Be grieved again at mine;

And force my sins to let me go,

Redeem’d by blood divine.


He who saves us shall be king,

Let him but deliverance bring.

God the Lord our witness be,

He who saves, our king shall be.

Jesus saves us, he shall reign;

Lord, do not the throne disdain;

Since to save us thou hast died,

Thou shalt reign, and none beside.


E’en in my holiest hours,

My folly I reveal,

I lack a balance for my powers,

A bridle for my zeal.

Great Spirit teach me how,

When all my soul is flame,

To guard the purport of my vow,

Lest I be put to shame.

If unto God I speak

And pledge the solemn vow,

Thy heavenly guidance I will seek,

My gentle teacher, thou.

He subdued the powers of hell,

In the fight he stood alone;

All his foes before him fell,

By his single arm o’erthrown.

His the battle, his the toil;

His the honours of the day;

His the glory and the spoil;

Jesus bears them all way.

Now proclaim His deeds afar,

Fill the world with his renown:

His alone the victor’s car;

His the everlasting crown!


I can do all things, or can bear

All sufferings, if my Lord be there;

Sweet pleasures mingle with the pains,

While his left hand my head sustains.

But if the Lord be once withdrawn,

And we attempt the work alone;

When new temptations spring and rise,

We find how great our weakness is.

So Samson, when his hair was lost,

Met the Philistines to his cost;

Shook his vain limbs with sad surprise,

Made feeble fight, and lost his eyes.


So Samson Israel’s foes o’erthrew,

More than in life by death he slew;

But when our greater Samson fell,

He vanquish’d sin, and death, and hell.

Compass’d with foes, he bow’d his head;

For mercy, not for vengeance pled,

And groaned his last expiring groan,

And pull’d th’ infernal kingdom down.


O Lord, our carnal mind control,

And make us pure within;

Train thou each passion of our soul

To hate the thought of sin.

Be ours the blessed lot of those

Who every evil flee;

Whose spirits chaste, as virgins pure,

In all things follow thee.

April 7.—Evening. [Or July 13.]
“Let not thine heart be hasty to utter anything before God.”

Judges 11:29–40

THEN the Spirit of the Lord came upon Jephthah, and he passed over Gilead, and Manasseh, and passed over Mizpeh of Gilead, and from Mizpeh of Gilead he passed over unto the children of Ammon.

Brave man as he was, he needed a divine preparation for his work, and God graciously vouchsafed it to him. When the Spirit of the Lord comes upon a man, it makes him far other than he was before; it elevates, guides, inspires, and strengthens. He who has the Spirit will find his arms upheld, and his strength rendered sufficient for accomplishing the most arduous enterprises. May this same Spirit, in a more gracious manner, rest upon us.

30 And Jephthah vowed a vow unto the Lord, and said, If thou shalt without fail deliver the children of Ammon into mine hands,

31 Then it shall be, that whatsoever cometh forth of the doors of my house to meet me, when I return in peace from the children of Ammon, shall surely be the Lord’s, and I will offer it up for a burnt offering. (This was, doubtless, the warm outburst of an earnest heart, but there was a great want of caution in it. If we vow at all, we should think long and well of what we are about to do, and then express our resolve in the plainest terms. It is most unwise for a Christian man to bring himself into bondage by rash pledges and incautious declarations. Jephthah’s case should be a warning to us.)

32 ¶ So Jephthah passed over unto the children of Ammon to fight against them; and the Lord delivered them into his hands.

33 And he smote them from Aroer, even till thou come to Minnith, even twenty cities, and unto the plain of the vineyards, with a very great slaughter. Thus the children of Ammon were subdued before the children of Israel.

Joyfully did the hero return to his home, but alas, how marred was his triumph. His rash vow had become a pit for him.

34 ¶ And Jephthah came to Mizpeh unto his house, and, behold, his daughter came out to meet him with timbrels and with dances: and she was his only child; beside her he had neither son nor daughter.

35 And it came to pass, when he saw her, that he rent his clothes, and said, Alas, my daughter! thou hast brought me very low, and thou art one of them that trouble me: for I have opened my mouth unto the Lord, and I cannot go back. (Yet it had been far better to break a wrong vow than to keep it. His mistake lay in uttering a vow which might possibly bring about such terrible consequences. He swore that he would offer up for a burnt offering whatsoever came forth of his doors to meet him. Half-instructed as he was, he may have thought that so bold a promise would be acceptable to Jehovah, and now in semi-heathenish fear, he feels he must stand to his word.)

36 And she said unto him, My father, if thou hast opened thy mouth unto the Lord, do to me according to that which hath proceeded out of thy mouth; forasmuch as the Lord hath taken vengeance for thee of thine enemies, even of the children of Ammon. (It was bravely spoken. Grandly did the hero’s daughter yield herself to die, or to remain unmarried, content so long as her country was free.)

37 And she said unto her father, Let this thing be done for me: Let me alone two months, that I may go up and down upon the mountains, and bewail my virginity, I and my fellows.

38 And he said, Go. And he sent her away for two months: and she went with her companions, and bewailed her virginity upon the mountains.

39, 40 And it came to pass at the end of two months, that she returned unto her father, who did with her according to his vow which he had vowed: and she knew no man. (Let us hope that her father did not actually sacrifice her: if he did, it was an act most abhorrent in the sight of God. Her submission to her doom was touchingly beautiful; let us hope that the vow was capable of a softer construction, and that she lived a celibate life, consecrated to the Lord. Many expressions in the chapter encourage that hope; at the same time it is sufficiently doubtful, to lead us to repeat our warning against every rash vow. Pause, hot spirit! Consider! Reckon all the consequences, and ere thou open thy mouth unto the Lord, make sure that what thou art covenanting to do is really for his glory, and within the lawful compass of thy power.) And it was a custom in Israel, That the daughters of Israel went yearly to lament the daughter of Jephthah the Gileadite four days in a year.[1]


[1] Spurgeon, C. H. (1964). The Interpreter: Spurgeon’s Devotional Bible (pp. 199–201). Grand Rapids, MI: Baker Book House.

Don’t be excited about the stock market rally, it is going to get ‘even worse,’ Peter Schiff tells Boom Bust | RT – Daily news

The US stock market has rallied for a second day in a row on hopes that the Covid-19 pandemic is slowing and the global economy is getting back to business. Not so fast, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital Peter Schiff tells Boom Bust.

“Well, I tend to doubt it,” Schiff says, discussing whether this is the turning point for the market. “Too many people are focused on the pin and ignoring the bubble that the pin pricked.”

He explains that, before the coronavirus shutdown, the US economy was long overdue a severe recession and Wall Street was long overdue a bear market.

“So, I think the Covid virus simply accelerated the onset of both. All that’s going to happen is that we are going to return to a recession and a bear market,” Schiff says.

Talking about the stock market’s rebound, he said: “I would not get excited about this rally. I think we still have a long way to go on the downside and the economy, I think, it is going to be even worse.”

Source: Don’t be excited about the stock market rally, it is going to get ‘even worse,’ Peter Schiff tells Boom Bust

The COVID-19 Pandemic: What Do and Don’t We Know — Public Discourse

Robert George: Could you begin by giving us a summary of what we know from the past about pandemics?

Nicholas Christakis: We’re experiencing something that’s very unusual in the history and life of our species: the introduction of a new pathogen that has entered our species and will circulate widely among us. As near as we can tell, this coronavirus bears a strong similarity to viruses that had been circulating in bats. It’s a bit odd that bat viruses so often cause us problems. There’s been some speculation that their immune system is very similar to ours. The virus first adapted to being transmissible in bats, and by some time in November in the Wuhan region of China was pre-adapted to the human immune system. By December, there were many people getting sick and dying in Wuhan by means we still don’t fully understand.

In Wuhan, a young doctor by the name of Wenliang Li noticed that many, many cases of an unusual kind of pneumonia were coming to his hospital.  He shared his observations on social media with some of his physician and nurse colleagues. This was seen as inappropriate by local authorities, and he was called in, accused of rumor-mongering, and silenced. Of course, he was right. He eventually was infected, as many healthcare workers have been, and died of the condition. He’s become somewhat of a hero in China as a result.

By the middle of January, it was quite clear what was happening. One of China’s leading experts who had dealt with a SARS-1 epidemic in 2003 went on a mission to Wuhan and saw what was happening. By late January, the Chinese government had begun to respond extremely forcefully, and a national quarantine of sorts was imposed. On January 24 or 25, I was contacted by some Chinese colleagues of mine to do some collaborative research. As a result, I began to really focus my attention and became aware that this disease was going to be pandemic, that it was a very serious threat, and that it would likely be an historic event.

In February, we began to follow the research being published in China and then in Italy. Italy had the misfortune of two people who had business exchanges with China landing in Lombardy, and one of those two people resulted in a super-spreading event. About forty-three people were infected by that person.

But if you look around the world—whether it’s Wuhan or Lombardy or Qom in Iran or New York City—the epidemic follows a very similar trajectory. We know from genetic studies where the strains of virus in particular cities came from. So, for example and off the top of my head, let’s say that the outbreak in New York came from the Italian strain and the outbreak in Seattle from the Chinese strain. This means that we know that this pathogen was already in circulation in Seattle by the middle of January, well before any one person had zeroed in that there was an outbreak. Before we knew it, the germ was spreading. This, incidentally, speaks to one of the reasons why closing borders typically is not an effective way to fight the virus. By the time the human beings become aware of the pandemic and try to close borders, the germ is already loose.

In January, the germ came to the United States. At that point, Italy and Iran were beginning to collapse from the pathogen. They had mass graves in Qom because so many people died so fast. We saw something similar in Lombardy. And there’s no reason to imagine things won’t be similar in the United States. On the one hand, we have lower population density and we’re richer. But there are other things that are no different, or worse, in our country.

Robert George: Let me ask about the different strains of the virus. Are they of the same lethality?

Nicholas Christakis: The virus has not mutated in a way that would make it more or less lethal. Typically viruses become less lethal; they don’t want to kill us, from a Darwinian point of view. It’s better for them that you walk around and transmit it to many other people. If it kills you rapidly, then you don’t transmit it. The flu kills about one in 1,000 infected people. Most people, or at least half, have no symptoms or mild symptoms if they’re infected by COVID-19. So the case fatality ratio for COVID-19 is about 0.5 to 1 percent, which means it’s between five and ten times as deadly as the flu.

By contrast, SARS-1 had a case fatality ratio of about 10 percent, at least ten times as fatal at COVID-19. It was very deadly. That was too high to sustain a pandemic; it just burned out. It would kill its victims before they could transmit it. So what we have in the case of COVID-19 is a pathogen that has an intermediate reproductive rate (Re): it’s neither too transmissible nor too non-transmissible, and it has intermediate lethality. These parameters remind me of the 1957 pandemic, which was an influenza pathogen that also originated in China and that had a similar lethality. That pandemic killed 110,000 Americans at a time when we had a population of about 150 million. That would be 250,000 Americans today.

Robert George: Did we do social distancing or shutdown the economy in 1957?

Nicholas Christakis: Yes, there was some of that. But there were a couple things that were different about 1957. As background, in 1918, we did social distancing and the banning of public gatherings and the school closures and all of that stuff in spades. In 1957, polio was raging as well, so there was some social distancing already going on. Also, the media environment was very different at the time. I don’t think people were as aware of what was happening in nearby regions in ’57 so as to try to get ahead of the curve.

It is a very standard thing to implement social distancing. Thucydides describes it in the plague that afflicted Athens in 430 BC. It’s not rocket science. There are two kinds of ways that we can respond to pandemics. One is so-called pharmaceutical interventions, drugs and vaccines, for which we don’t have any for this condition, although we hope to have some in the future. The other is so- called non-pharmaceutical interventions, of which there are two types: individual stuff—like washing your hands, self-isolating, not touching your nose and face—and collective interventions—like school closures or the governor banning public gatherings. All of these have been around forever. You can look at medieval woodcuts of how the people in European cities coped with pandemics and see them spaced out in the public squares.

This is a fundamental human experience that we’re having. It’s been described for long periods of time. It’s just we’re not used to having it.

Robert George: What can we expect the number of deaths in the United States to be, roughly?

Nicholas Christakis: I would say there’s a 99 percent chance that we will have at least 35,000 deaths, a 75 percent chance that we will have at least 50,000 deaths, a 50 percent chance that we will have at least 100,000 deaths, a 25 percent chance of 300,000 deaths, and a 5 or 2 percent chance we’ll have 1 million deaths. Part of the reason that epidemiologists are so uncertain is that this thing has only been on the planet for two or three months. We have a lot of knowledge about coronaviruses and a lot of knowledge about pandemics. But this particular pathogen jumped to humans in November.

Robert George: So would it be fair to say that if the death toll ends up being under 100,000 or more than 350,000, you will be surprised?

Nicholas Christakis: I’ll definitely be surprised if it’s under 100,000—although happy. I won’t be totally surprised if it’s above 300,000.

Robert George: Do we have any serious danger that the virus will mutate in a way that will make the situation worse?

Nicholas Christakis: That is unlikely. As I said earlier, the virus would “rather” be less lethal.

But let me talk about flattening the curve. If there will be 100,000 deaths in the United States, we’re trying to avoid having all of them occur this month. By engaging in social distancing, we flatten the curve. So maybe 100,000 deaths will still occur, but they will occur over time, which allows our healthcare system to take care of them and pushes some of the deaths into the future, by which time we may know better how to treat the condition. We could have taken it on the chin and just said, “All right, 300,000 Americans are going to die sooner or later. Let’s let them all die now and then get it over with.” But that’s inhumane and politically very difficult. And I think when those deaths started happening, people would be clamoring for action, but by then it would be too late to engage in the social distancing.

That’s what we’re doing for the first wave of COVID-19. Typically, these respiratory viruses go away in our summer and appear in the Southern Hemisphere during their winter. For various reasons, most people do not think that that will happen in this case. We may get a small break, but not a weather cure. Then, when people go back to school and return to work in the fall, you get the second wave. A third wave will also follow. Eventually, the disease will become endemic in our population, i.e. it’s going to become like the flu or the common cold—if we’re lucky. It’ll just be one of those pathogens that circulates in our species and enough of us will be immune that the pathogen cannot easily spread through us. In short, we’re at the beginning of the first wave, there is likely to be a second wave, and then the end game is we’ll get used to it.

Robert George: What can you tell us about the status of things when it comes to a) an actual vaccine and b) effective treatments? Perhaps using anti-malarial drugs or other treatments, pharmaceutical or otherwise?

Nicholas Christakis: This is not a particularly easy vaccine to develop, but I think we will be able to develop one. If I had to bet, we will have one in eighteen months, and maybe more than one by competing manufacturers. I have not done extensive research on chloroquine. I did see the studies out of China that suggested that chloroquine and zinc seemed to have some efficacy, but I haven’t seen any evidence that suggests that if you take these things prophylacticly, they have any effect or early in the course.

Robert George: But as a treatment my understanding is that New York is now treating quite a large number of people with some sort of mix of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin and zinc. So does that mean we’ll know pretty soon whether it’s working or not?

Nicholas Christakis: No, because unfortunately we’re not doing it in a randomized control trial. I’m not prepared to make a statement on the utility of those drugs. I can say that the Chinese doctors seem to think that they were helpful, and I have a lot of confidence in frontline clinicians who are carefully observing patients. But, a lot of times, doctors have said that something works and they were wrong. It had no effect or even hurt people. It’s good to pay attention to what the doctors are telling us about their clinical observation, but I wouldn’t assume that it’s true.

Robert George: Should the public wear non-N95 masks when doing essential errands? Are bandanas and homemade masks okay?

Nicholas Christakis: In general, the answer is yes. I think we should be wearing masks.

The N95 masks that everyone talks about are quite good, but some studies say that a bandana is half as good. The other advantage of a mask is that it stops you from touching your nose and mouth.

Robert George: How trustworthy is the data from China, especially the information we are using to make policy decisions concerning infection rates, severity of illness, and mortality?

Nicholas Christakis: I think a lot of the data is reliable. The Chinese Communist Party is not a reliable source of information very often. That said, I think many of the Chinese studies are quite reliable and have now been validated by Italian studies.

Regarding the question of whether the Chinese are hiding their mortality rates, I think probably they were early in Wuhan, but, by the middle of January, they themselves had a powerful incentive for truth-telling in order to track the epidemic. Accurate reporting was essential if you’re going to combat this infection. So I do believe those numbers; plus, my lab has done some research on this that I cannot yet discuss that gives me some confidence. I know that their fatality numbers are almost certainly accurate after the initial shock in Wuhan.

Robert George: What is the appropriate exit strategy from current quarantine measures?

Nicholas Christakis: Everyone wants to know when will this end. The answer is, it will end when we are ready for it to end. When we are ready to adopt the kinds of practices that are common in South Korea and in Taiwan, where we adopt some social distancing but can test people. It will end when we have our healthcare system stabilized so that those of us that get sick can be cared for. I would happily stay at home for three months if it meant that my neighbors are not going to die.

Robert George: What is the likelihood that schools and universities are going to be able to reopen in the fall?

Nicholas Christakis: I don’t know the answer to that. It won’t surprise me if either we don’t open many schools or if we open and then close them again. That happened in 1918, by the way: the schools closed and then opened and then immediately closed again.

Robert George: What should be the criteria that we use to know when it’s reasonable and prudent to return to a normal way of life?

Nicholas Christakis: Scott Gottlieb, the former FDA director, and some colleagues just released a report from the American Enterprise Institute that I’ve skimmed. It seems very sensible and very similar to what’s being done in certain Asian countries, and certainly similar to the German plan. We have to prepare our people for the fight. They need honesty. They need to be told that sacrifices will be expected. Behaviors will have to change.

We spent a trillion dollars on this stimulus package. But I think more money needs to be targeted at our enemy, which is the virus, and at the public education that’s needed to tackle the virus. We also need personal protective equipment manufactured for our healthcare professionals beyond all imagination.

When we get all of that stuff in order, we can begin opening up parts of the country, returning to work, and following the plan. We’ll do that for a couple of years, and then we’ll return to life as normal.

Robert George: One final question: Are there any serious long-term implications for civil liberties from our country or others from epidemics in the past that we should bear in mind today?

Nicholas Christakis: I’m very worried that the pandemic will be used by far-left and far-right regimes to try to suspend civil liberties. In Hungary, the parliament suspended itself and gave Viktor Orban the right to rule by decree and imprison people for five years for rumor-mongering and passing information about about the virus.  Of course, the Chinese did that too, in the beginning. It’s tempting in times of crisis to do that; I think history shows that that is very ill-advised. I do support the power of the government for quarantine. If you’re sick and you insist on going out, the police should come to your door. If you refuse to abide by a quarantine, you should go to jail. You do not have the right to infect others. But I can see no reason why we should have any desire to suspend civil liberties or acquiesce to their suspension because of a pandemic.

via The COVID-19 Pandemic: What Do and Don’t We Know — Public Discourse

After Updating Predictions on Sunday Latest IHME Predictions Already 20% Over Actual Numbers — May Be Looking at 46,000 Total US Coronavirus Deaths or Less — The Gateway Pundit

Last TUESDAY Coronavirus Task Force Response Coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx pushed the talking point that by completely locking down the US economy and American public, the US government and Coronavirus task force “experts” were able to cut the total coronavirus deaths in the United States from 1 to 2.2 million deaths down to 100,000 to 200,000 deaths.

That is a stunning update. The revised their numbers down by around 90%!
You’d think that would have made a few headlines?

This was based on “models” by her chosen scientific “experts” — Chris Murray and the IHME.

Here is the chart Dr. Birx discussed during the daily coronavirus press conference at the White House.

It shows an estimated 2.2 million US deaths.
Again — this was at the press conference 6 days ago!

There is not a single country in the world today with over 16,000 total coronavirus deaths.

On Sunday night the IMHE cut their numbers in half.

Today the IMHE model used by the CDC and Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci estimate the total US coronavirus deaths to be 81,766 by August 4th.
And 81,000 by May 21st.

The actual numbers are already below their current models. — by a huge margin!

Dr. Andrew Bostom published the actual numbers to the projected numbers earlier today.

The actual number of US deaths due to coronavirus on Monday was: 10,068 deaths.
The estimated IHME model number of deaths by Monday was: 12,539 (range of 11,256 – 14,281)

The IHME numbers are already off by 20%!

If this plays out that the actual numbers continue to be below the lower limit predictions we are looking at under 46,000 coronavirus deaths in the US— or a TYPICAL flu season!

It will be interesting to watch Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx defend their actions to the tens of millions of Americans who will lose their jobs this month!

via After Updating Predictions on Sunday Latest IHME Predictions Already 20% Over Actual Numbers — May Be Looking at 46,000 Total US Coronavirus Deaths or Less — The Gateway Pundit

Fudging Numbers: CDC Tells Hospitals To List COVID As Cause Of Death Even If You’re Just Assuming Or It Only Contributed | DC Clothesline by Pamela Geller

Pumping the numbers.

From CDC Website: Hospitals to List COVID-19 as Cause of Death Even if It’s “Assumed to Have Caused Or Contributed to Death”

Coronavirus: Hysteria Vs. Science

1/ As you sit home watching #COVID death counts spiral, please know the official @CDCgov guidance for coding COVID-related deaths is as follows: any death where the disease “caused or is *assumed* to have caused or *contributed to* death.” Confirmed lab tests are not required… pic.twitter.com/H4D6mcti3R

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 3, 2020

By C. Douglas Golden, Western Journal, April 4, 2020:

The problem with making informed decisions about coronavirus is that we don’t have a whole lot of data on it at the moment.

The data that we do have, meanwhile, could end up being terminally skewed, particularly the data that’s been coming out of China.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s guidance on determining COVID-19 as a cause of death isn’t going to help those numbers.

Issued March 24, the guidance tells hospitals to list COVID-19 as a cause of death regardless of whether or not there’s actual testing to confirm that’s the case.

Instead, even if the coronavirus was just a contributing factor or if it’s “assumed to have caused or contributed to death,” it can be listed as the primary cause.

The International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, or ICD, has established the code U07.1 for death by coronavirus infection. There’s a secondary code, U07.2, “for clinical or epidemiological diagnosis of COVID-19 where a laboratory confirmation is inconclusive or not available,” according to the CDC guidance.

“Because laboratory test results are not typically reported on death certificates in the U.S., NCHS is not planning to implement U07.2 for mortality statistics.”

Therein lies the problem.

“The underlying cause depends upon what and where conditions are reported on the death certificate. However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID- 19 being the underlying cause more often than not,” the guidelines read.

“COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc.,” the guidance continued.

“If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II.”

Author and former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson, one of the few well-known figures to question some of the statistics on COVID-19, questioned the new CDC guidelines as well:

1/ As you sit home watching #COVID death counts spiral, please know the official @CDCgov guidance for coding COVID-related deaths is as follows: any death where the disease “caused or is *assumed* to have caused or *contributed to* death.” Confirmed lab tests are not required… pic.twitter.com/H4D6mcti3R

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 3, 2020

2/ And, btw, other possibly relevant factors, like, oh, COPD, are considered secondary. The rules “are expected to result in COVID-19 being the underlying cause more often than not.” https://t.co/o003zuLQHt

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 3, 2020

Earlier this week, President Donald Trump and members of his coronavirus task force announced that they were expecting a death toll of between 100,000 and 240,000 from coronavirus.

In an article on Friday, The Washington Post said some experts didn’t think the White House’s prediction models were accurate. It wasn’t because those experts thought that figure was too high or too low: It’s just because they didn’t think there was enough data to determine a death range yet.

“We don’t have a sense of what’s going on in the here and now, and we don’t know what people will do in the future,” Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist whose work was used by the White House to determine the death ranges, said.

“We don’t know if the virus is seasonal, as well.”

Article posted with permission from Pamela Geller

h/t TWS

Source: Fudging Numbers: CDC Tells Hospitals To List COVID As Cause Of Death Even If You’re Just Assuming Or It Only Contributed