Brit Hume has really done his part in making sure the American people get to see valid and pertinent information about COVID-19, especially if it goes against the notion that locking people into their homes for months on end is the only solution.
This time, Brit shared a piece from Nobel prize-winning scientist, Professor Michael Leavitt, who claims the virus was never exponential and that mitigation efforts were not the main reason the curves were flattened. This is fascinating:
His observation is a simple one: that in outbreak after outbreak of this disease, a similar mathematical pattern is observable regardless of government interventions. After around a two-week exponential growth of cases (and, subsequently, deaths) some kind of break kicks in, and growth starts slowing down. The curve quickly becomes “sub-exponential”.
This may seem like a technical distinction, but its implications are profound. The ‘unmitigated’ scenarios modeled by (among others) Imperial College, and which tilted governments across the world into drastic action, relied on a presumption of continued exponential growth — that with a consistent R number of significantly above 1 and a consistent death rate, very quickly the majority of the population would be infected and huge numbers of deaths would be recorded. But Professor Levitt’s point is that that hasn’t actually happened anywhere, even in countries that have been relatively lax in their responses.
End the lockdowns.
More generally, he complains that epidemiologists only seem to be called wrong if they underestimate deaths, and so there is an intrinsic bias towards caution. “They see their role as scaring people into doing something, and I understand that… but in my work, if I say a number is too small and I’m wrong, or too big and I’m wrong, both of those errors are the same.”
Scaring people into doing something.
Scaring them into obeying.
Like locking down.
And they succeeded, there are millions of Americans who have been terrified so badly they get angry at other Americans who are not terrified.
Protect the vulnerable.
Which is what we’ve always done … until now.
Lockdowns are destroying lives in other ways and unlike the virus, it is indeed exponential.
Would be nice to hear from these experts more often, doncha think?