There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true. —Soren Kierkegaard. "…truth is true even if nobody believes it, and falsehood is false even if everybody believes it. That is why truth does not yield to opinion, fashion, numbers, office, or sincerity–it is simply true and that is the end of it" – Os Guinness, Time for Truth, pg.39. “He that takes truth for his guide, and duty for his end, may safely trust to God’s providence to lead him aright.” – Blaise Pascal. "There is but one straight course, and that is to seek truth and pursue it steadily" – George Washington letter to Edmund Randolph — 1795. We live in a “post-truth” world. According to the dictionary, “post-truth” means, “relating to or denoting circumstances in which objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief.” Simply put, we now live in a culture that seems to value experience and emotion more than truth. Truth will never go away no matter how hard one might wish. Going beyond the MSM idealogical opinion/bias and their low information tabloid reality show news with a distractional superficial focus on entertainment, sensationalism, emotionalism and activist reporting – this blogs goal is to, in some small way, put a plug in the broken dam of truth and save as many as possible from the consequences—temporal and eternal. "The further a society drifts from truth, the more it will hate those who speak it." – George Orwell “There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” ― Soren Kierkegaard
Pope Francis recently said that every religion will get you to God: “Sikh, Muslim, Hindu, Christian, they are different paths” to the same God, he said.
As @Phil_Johnson_ pointed out, “The Pope and Oprah sing from the same songbook.” Watch this 90-second video…
Pope Francis recently said that every religion will get you to God: "Sikh, Muslim, Hindu, Christian, they are different paths" to the same God, he said.
2 Yahweh, the Wise Teacher, takes the offensive and interrogates Job, his complaining servant. Job has pondered his dilemma from many sides, and his questioning has led him to challenge the traditional belief that God governs the world in justice (e.g., chs. 21 and 24). Without presenting a self-defense against these accusations, Yahweh opens by putting Job in his place with a question that casts doubt on Job’s insight (v. 2). Without discounting Job’s moral integrity, Yahweh challenges Job’s perception of his governance of the world. By opening with the words Who is this? Yahweh asserts his superiority. Moreover, he shows respect for Job by addressing him as a virile man (geḇer). This choice of words means that neither his affliction nor his inflamed rhetoric has diminished his intrinsic worth as a human being.
Before beginning a series of questions designed to lead Job to abandon his position, Yahweh accuses Job of darkening counsel (ʿēṣâ) and of speaking with words lacking knowledge. Certainly Job lacks insight into the counsel of God, i.e., the wisdom that permeates his creative acts and guides his governance of the universe (cf. Jer. 32:19). At times Job approached the truth of his situation with penetrating insight, but he fell quickly into despondent outbursts. His anxious fears about his humiliating circumstance have clouded his thinking about Yahweh’s purpose. Job has darkened this counsel because he lacks a broad, comprehensive perspective of God’s ways. His perception has been darkest when he has accused God of acting arbitrarily without regard for justice and when he has assumed that he himself could dispute with God as an equal.
This divine rebuke, nevertheless, stands in tension with the coming statement in which Yahweh will affirm that Job has spoken rightly about God (42:7). Putting these two statements together, it could be said that Job has complained and agonized out of a sincere heart with an increasing faith, but he has not discerned the judicious counsel of God that permeates all of his deeds throughout the world. Although Job has lacked insight, Yahweh does not say that Job has sinned. He never rebukes Job for swearing his avowal of innocence. But he contends that Job’s limited understanding hinders him from disputing wisely with his Creator about his own fate. As Fohrer observes, Job has not sought for the solution of his plight in God himself alone, but in the pursuit of his rights. In that search he has erred, but he has not sinned. It needs to be restated that it has been Job’s conviction that he is innocent that has enabled him to press the issue until God’s appearing. Nevertheless, a danger inherent in basing his self-defense on his own personal integrity is that pride may arise and pervert his thinking. It is to thwart any undue pride in Job that Yahweh opens with a rebuke, for such pride will prevent Job from yielding his avowal of innocence in order to be reconciled with Yahweh.1
38:2Who is this that obscures my plans with words without knowledge? Yahweh’s opening words, “Who is this?” introduce the central theme of his speeches. Yahweh wants Job to understand who Yahweh is and who Job is. Job has been speaking beyond what he truly knows, because he, as a finite human, is in no position to speak accurately about Yahweh’s plans for the world or for him personally. Yahweh has a design that surpasses anything that Job can fathom or describe.2
38:2
Who is this that darkens counsel by words without knowledge?
Elihu had charged Job with speaking without knowledge and insight (see 34:35) and here the Lord endorses that judgement. He describes Job as one who ‘darkens counsel by words without knowledge’, charging him with having confused matters rather than clarifying them. This is the opposite of wisdom.
What follows is a most fearful interrogation. Job is battered from pillar to post and to a degree beyond anything that he has had to endure from the Friends. A barrage of questions assails his ears about himself in relation to his environment—about the earth and the sea (38:4–21), the skies (38:22–38) and, finally, the land animals and birds (38:39–39:30). It is this transition from the inanimate to the animate that provides the explanation for the division in our exposition at this point.
The form of some of these questions is impersonal: for example, ‘Who founded and measured the earth?’ (38:4–5); ‘Who shut in the sea?’ (38:8); and ‘Which is the way to …?’ (38:19). But there are others that are personal, such as, ‘Where were you …? (38:4), ‘Have you commanded …?’ (38:12), ‘Can you …?’ (38:31, 34, 39) and ‘Do you know …?’ (38:33; 39:1). Most of them are left without answers, but not all. There are first-person singular declarations (38:4, 9, 23; 39:6) which spell out the answer to all the others. God the Lord is the one who has the knowledge and power to act.
Job is being put in his place by means of rhetorical and direct questions because he has not given God his proper place. He is interrogated about his environment so that he might become aware of his own great ignorance about it, and therefore his unfitness to rule over it. And if that is so with regard to the world around him, then what about the world above him, with God, who is the Creator, Sustainer and Ruler of all, and also the world ‘below’ him?3
1 Hartley, J. E. (1988). The Book of Job (pp. 491–492). Wm. B. Eerdmans Publishing Co.
2 Estes, D. J. (2013). Job (M. L. Strauss, J. H. Walton, & R. de Rosset, Eds.; p. 231). Baker Books.
Isaiah 22:11 — You stockpiled water, but you haven’t looked to the Maker of the water!
Isaiah 22:16 — Shebna, the treasurer, was chided by the LORD for making a fancy tomb for himself. We may have found his tomb marker!
In Isaiah 22 the prophet rails in God’s name against the excesses of the officials in King Hezekiah’s palace. In 1870 the famous French diplomat, scholar and archaeologist Charles Clermont-Ganneau excavated a partially destroyed tomb high up on the cliff overlooking the Kidron Valley and the City of David in Jerusalem. Over the entrance to the rock-cut burial chamber was an inscription that, unfortunately, he was unable to decipher. Was this the tomb of Shebna the high court official mentioned in Isaiah who is, literally, “over the house” or in charge of the palace (often identified as the treasurer) and who was castigated by the prophet for building himself such an elaborate tomb on the cliff?
They’ve even found a seal impression of a document Shebna wrote:
Isaiah 22:20 — We’ve met Eliakim before in 2 Kings 18:26 when Rabshekah threatened Hezekiah’s people in Hebrew.
Isaiah 23:15 — Matthew Henry notes the interesting fact that both Jerusalem and Tyre were in captivity for 70 years.
Isaiah 24:23 — This verse is key to understanding the passage. When will the moon be confounded and the sun ashamed? When the events of Revelation 6:12 occur.
Galatians 2:20 — Phil Johnson of “Grace to You” preached on this verse, declaring it “The Key to Everything in a Single Verse.” Johnson notes that we share in and benefit from all of Christ’s virtues. Faith brings us into vital union with Christ, i.e. we participate in His death and resurrection.
Galatians 3:1 — Paul is concerned about his beloved Galatians. Yesterday we read his pronouncement of “anathema” upon those who teach another Gospel. Today, he calls the believers of another Gospel “foolish” and their teachers “witches.” Paul is greatly concerned about the purity of the Gospel.
Galatians 3:6 — This is one of the most quoted texts in the Bible. Genesis 15:6 tells us how Abram believed God, and his faith was logged into God’s accounting book as righteousness. James quotes this verse (James 3:23); Paul writes extensively to the Romans about justification in Romans 4.
Psalm 60:1 — The Psalmist acknowledges his condition, accepts His anger, and asks for His arrival.
Psalm 60:12 — “Valiant” is a beautiful word that is falling out of favor in the English language. Google will now tell us how often a word is used over time, and its usage has dropped significantly over the last two centuries. But let’s take a look at Pilgrim’s Progress and meet a character by the name of Valiant:
Then they went on; and just at the place where Little-faith formerly was robbed, there stood a man with his Sword drawn, and his Face all bloody. Then said Mr Great-heart, “What art thou?” The man made answer, saying, “I am one whose name is Valiant-for-truth. I am a Pilgrim, and am going to the Celestial City. Now as I was in my way, there were three men did beset me….”
Great-heart. But here was great odds, three against one.
Valiant. ‘Tis true, but little or more are nothing to him that has the Truth on his side. Tho’ an Host encamp against me, said one, my heart shall not fear; tho’ War should rise against me, in this will I be confident, &c. Besides, saith he, I have read in some Records, that one man has fought an Army; and how many did Samson slay with the Jaw-bone of an Ass?
Proverbs 23:15 — What does a godly dad want for his son? That he would win at Fortnite? Rather, that he would be wise!
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Behold, he that keepeth Israel shall neither slumber nor sleep. (Psalm 121:4)
Jehovah is “the Keeper of Israel.” No form of unconsciousness ever steals over Him, neither the deeper slumber nor the slighter sleep. He never fails to watch the house and the heart of His people. This is a sufficient reason for our resting in perfect peace. Alexander said that he slept because his friend Parmenio watched; much more may we sleep because our God is our guard.
“Behold” is here set up to call our attention to the cheering truth. Israel, when he had a stone for his pillow, fell asleep; but His God was awake and came in vision to His servant. When we lie defenseless, Jehovah Himself will cover our head.
The Lord keeps His people as a rich man keeps his treasure, as a captain keeps a city with a garrison, as a sentry keeps watch over his sovereign. None can harm those who are in such keeping. Let me put my soul into His dear hands. He never forgets us, never ceases actively to care for us, never finds Himself unable to preserve us.
O my Lord, keep me, lest I wander and fall and perish. Keep me, that I may keep Thy commandments. By Thine unslumbering care prevent my sleeping like the sluggard and perishing like those who sleep the sleep of death.
2 Corinthians 11:3-5
New American Standard Bible
3 But I am afraid that, as the serpent deceived Eve by his trickery, your minds will be led astray from sincere and pure devotion to Christ. 4 For if one comes and preaches another Jesus whom we have not preached, or you receive a different spirit which you have not received, or a different gospel which you have not accepted, this you tolerate very well! 5 For I consider myself not in the least inferior to the most eminent apostles.
2 Peter 2:17-19
New American Standard Bible
17 These are springs without water and mists driven by a storm, for whom the black darkness has been reserved. 18 For, while speaking out arrogant words of no value they entice by fleshly desires, by indecent behavior, those who barely escape from the ones who live in error, 19 promising them freedom while they themselves are slaves of corruption; for by what anyone is overcome, by this he is enslaved.
Turkish intelligence chief meets Hamas chiefs in Ankara to pressure them to accept deal Turkey’s spy chief met a delegation from Hamas in Ankara on Friday to discuss negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza, according to state broadcaster TRT. Ibrahim Kalin, head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Agency, met the Hamas political bureau leadership delegation, TRT Haber said, citing Turkish security sources, without saying who the delegation members were.
Dying American Jews are fools to hope Emhoff will save them One more nail in the American Jewish coffin as delusional Jews turn to non-Jewish Doug Emhoff to be their savior. However, we know that on very, very few occasions in Jewish history did a Jew close to the seat of power actually help their Jewish community. Of course, Queen Esther remains the best known exception.
Canadian pleads guilty to attacks on North and South Dakota energy facilities A Canadian man whom customs officials say entered the United States illegally has plead guilty in U.S. District Court in Bismarck to attacking energy installations in North Dakota and South Dakota. Cameron Monte Smith admitted to two counts of destruction of an energy facility and faces up to 20 years in federal prison and a fine of $250,000 on each count.
Body language experts tell Dr. Phil ABC News debate moderators were hostile to Trump: ‘Thumb on the scale’ Dr. Phil spoke with experts Scott Rouse and Greg Hartley in a special post-debate town hall broadcast. When asked whether they saw bias from moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis … “Let’s just look at body language, look at the facial expressions of people when they’re looking at Trump. There was clearly a bias against Trump in their faces,”
Congress subpoenas Walz on Feeding Our Future documents Chair Foxx Subpoenas Walz’s Minnesota Department of Education to Demand Accountability in “Largest COVID-19 Fraud Scheme in the Nation” “Chair Foxx” refers to the Committee Chairwoman, Virginia Foxx (R-North Carolina). The subpoena was sent to Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and represents at least the third attempt by the Committee to obtain documents from the Walz administration relating to their oversight (or lack thereof) of Feeding Our Future [FOF] and the federal child nutrition programs under their purview The subpoena applies directly to Walz
Pope Francis: ‘Every religion is a way to arrive at God’ Pope Francis today told young people of different faiths that “every religion is a way to arrive at God.” Addressing an inter-religious meeting of young people in Singapore just before departing for his return flight to Rome, Pope Francis turned to one of the central themes of his pontificate – inter-religious dialogue.
Hamas leader Sinwar vows to continue fighting until ‘occupation is swept away’ in rare public statement On Friday, Lebanese media published a rare statement from Sinwar, who has stayed in intermittent contact with Hamas leadership outside of Gaza to communicate his decisions during hostage deal negotiations but has largely refrained from commenting on the war. Sinwar declared that Hamas would continue to “stand firm” against Israel and remain loyal to the “blood of the martyrs.”
IDF declares victory over Hamas’s Rafah brigade The Israel Defense Forces has defeated Hamas’s Rafah brigade, the military declared on Thursday after four months of targeted raids in the area of the Gaza Strip’s southernmost city near the border with Egypt.
Israel destroys underground Iranian missile factory, Iran fuming IDF elite forces undertook a raid last week in Syria to eliminate an underground missile factory created by Iran, three sources told Axios. Although Israel has undertaken airstrikes in Syria for specific targets since October 7th, the ground operation in Syria was highly unusual.
‘Prophetic’ rabbi says Trump’s life was spared to do this one thing for Israel Rabbi Nir Ben Artzi, whose statements are regarded as prophetic by his many followers, said that God spared Former President and current Republican candidate Donald Trump from a potentially deadly assassination attempt so he could prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state. Rabbi Ben Artzi is based in Israel, where he has a large following and is also popular globally.
Israel to add the north to the goals of the war Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to bring for Cabinet approval the addition of the goal of “returning the residents of the north to their homes safely” to the goals of the war.
Tropical Storm “Ileana” brings heavy rains and floods to Jalisco, Mexico Tropical Storm “Ileana” dropped heavy rain over municipalities in Jalisco, Mexico on September 12, 2024. Floodwaters from swollen rivers swept away cars and motorcycles and entered several homes. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula today, September 13, and over the southern and central Gulf of California this weekend.
Cyclone Boris prompts flood warnings across Czech Republic, Poland, and Austria while sudden snowstorm claims life in Italy Cyclone Boris is forecast to drop up to 400 mm (15.7 inches) of rain to parts of central Europe over the next 3 days, prompting widespread flood warnings and emergency preparations in countries like the Czech Republic, Poland, Austria, Germany and Slovakia. Parts of central Europe have already seen 200+ mm (8 inches) of rain over the past 2 days while a sudden snowstorm in Italy’s Dolomite mountains claimed the life of one person and left another one with severe hypothermia.
Florida school district must restore books with LGBTQ content under settlement A school district in northeast Florida must put back in libraries three dozen books as part of a settlement reached Thursday with students and parents who sued over what they said was an unlawful decision to limit access to dozens of titles containing LGBTQ+ content.
‘Israeli forces raided Iranian weapons depot in Syria’ Israel Defense Forces commandos raided a key Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps weapons facility in the Masyaf area of northwestern Syria on Sunday night, unconfirmed Arabic reports claimed on Thursday.
WEF admits covid was a “test” of public obedience The World Economic Forum quietly revealed that the covid pandemic was a test to gauge public compliance with Globalist agendas. The admission was made in an article which is labeled as part of WEF’s invitation-only ‘Sustainable Development Impact Meetings’ held in New York. Although the article was published two years ago, it shows what the intent has been for many years.
Britain will be the first country to be killed off by “net zero” The Labour Party has only been in power for weeks, but they are doing everything they can to destroy what is left of the country as they take us into the world of Net Zero. And they’re going to be very successful at it. As globally they push us into the Great Reset via the pain of Net Zero, the world is coming to an end. And Britain will be the first country to die.
The truth about covid injections: Crimes against humanity in Australia Last week, The GMO Case released a documentary titled ‘The Truth: About Covid-19 Shots’. Produced by Gaz and narrated by Maryanne Demasi PhD, former presenter with the ABC science show Catalyst, the documentary reveals facts which have been concealed from the Australian public about the covid injections.
Samantha Koch During Tuesday’s debate, the Democrat standard-bearer attacked Donald Trump on abortion while the ABC moderators weighed in to protect Harris.
Thomas Gallatin The tech giant faces another antitrust lawsuit, and an undercover video exposes that the company rigs its search engine to support Kamala Harris.
“No, I don’t think she’s abandoning her ideals. I think she’s trying to be pragmatic and doing what she thinks is right in order to win the election.” —socialist Senator Bernie Sanders (VT) regarding Kamala Harris
Theater of the Absurd
“I think she’s been crystal clear on her values, what she wants to fight for, and how she will do it. And also, you know — she talks to people.” —Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo regarding Kamala Harris
The BIG Lies
“On that day [January 6], 140 law enforcement officers were injured. And some died.” —Kamala Harris
“Let’s remember Charlottesville, where there was a mob of people carrying tiki torches, spewing anti-Semitic hate. And what did the president then at the time say? ‘There were fine people on each side.'” —Kamala Harris
“Donald Trump left us the worst unemployment since the Great Depression…. Donald Trump left us the worst attack on our democracy since the Civil War.” —Kamala Harris
“Trump the candidate has said in this election there will be a bloodbath if … the outcome of this election is not to his liking.” —Kamala Harris
“Donald Trump when he was president negotiated one of the weakest [Afghanistan] deals you can image.” —Kamala Harris
“It is very well known that Donald Trump is weak and wrong on national security and foreign policy.” —Kamala Harris
“If Donald Trump were president, Putin would be sitting in Kiev right now.” —Kamala Harris
“The United States Supreme Court recently ruled that the former president would essentially be immune from any misconduct if he were to enter the White House again. Understand, this is someone who has openly said he would terminate … the Constitution of the United States. That he would weaponize the Department of Justice against his political enemies. Someone who has openly expressed disdain for members of our military.” —Kamala Harris
“Donald Trump actually has no plan for you because he is more interested in defending himself than he is in looking out for you.” —Kamala Harris
Useful Idiots
“Far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed. Children, mothers. … We must chart a course for a two-state solution.” —Kamala Harris
“We can’t allow what’s happened in Gaza to happen. … I think those folks who are speaking out loudly in Michigan are speaking out for all the right reasons.” —Tim Walz
Lack of Self-Awareness Awards
“Federal prosecutors and agents may never make a decision regarding an investigation or prosecution for the purpose of affecting any election or the purpose of giving an advantage or disadvantage to any candidate or political party.” —Attorney General Merrick Garland
“Our norms are a promise that we will not allow this department to be used as a political weapon, and our norms are a promise that we will not allow this nation to become a country where law enforcement is treated as an apparatus of politics.” —Merrick Garland
More BIG Lies
“I believe in security. I want barriers on our southern border at every place it makes sense. I don’t want anyone to come into our country if we don’t know who they are.” —Congressman Eric Swalwell (D-CA)
“Vice President Harris was never in charge of immigration policy … and was certainly not the border czar.” —Congressman Jerry Nalder (D-NY)
“When I was a kid growing up in Nebraska, being gay was illegal. Still technically illegal.” —Tim Walz
“Kamala and I are so proud of our record. The greatest job creation record of any single presidential term in American history. … Every single month increasing jobs to a total of 16 million new jobs since we took office.” —Joe Biden
Delusions of Grandeur
“Nearly four years that we’ve been president and vice president, we’ve had one of the most extraordinary periods of progress in American history.” —Joe Biden
Non Compos Mentis
“Guess what? A trillion three hundred billion dollars over 10 years. And we reduced the budget at the same time.” —Joe Biden
Baghdad Bob
“We have all held ourselves accountable for the progress of the withdrawal.” —National Security Council spokesman John Kirby regarding Biden and Harris’s surrender and retreat from Afghanistan
“Ending wars is more difficult than starting them. … But it doesn’t mean that the decision to end this one was wrong or that the withdrawal wasn’t conducted as professionally and as bravely as was humanly possible given the circumstances.” —John Kirby
Demagogues
“We banned banning books, especially banning LGBTQ books.” —Tim Walz
“Together, let’s ban assault weapons. My dad was a hunter. I don’t know a whole hell of a lot of deer wearing Kevlar vests. I’m serious about this. High-capacity magazines — once again, what do we need them for in terms of domestic use?” —Joe Biden
Yellow Journalism
“JD Vance says school shooting are a ‘fact of life,’ calls for better security.” —Associated Press
Praetorian Guard
“Because of the extremism of the Republican Party, because of how extreme Donald Trump is, it’s hard to hold both candidates accountable equally, because one is committed to democracy and is functioning as a normal candidate from a normal American party, and the other is not. And it’s important to hold all candidates accountable. It’s just that when you do that, it does sometimes sound a little silly because, given the breadth of what the vice president is offering the American people, there is no comparison with Donald Trump.” —New York Times editorial board member Mara Gay
Leftmedia Lobotomy
“The Beltway Media Got Its Harris Interview. Can We Move On Now?” —The Nation’s Joan Walsh
Dumb & Dumber
“In the two years since he bought Twitter, now X, Musk has transformed it into a primary source of false election rumors, both by spreading them on his own account, which has 197 million followers, and lowering some of the site’s guardrails around misinformation.” —The Washington Post
“Experts say Musk is uniquely dangerous as a purveyor of misinformation because his digital following stretches well beyond the political realm and into the technology and investment sectors, where his business achievements have earned him credibility.” —The Washington Post
Village Idiots
“The person who should be applauded is the president who did the most selfless thing that anybody’s done since George Washington.” —actor George Clooney
“I will be casting my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 Presidential Election. I’m voting for [Harris] because she fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion them. I think she is a steady-handed, gifted leader and I believe we can accomplish so much more in this country if we are led by calm and not chaos. I was so heartened and impressed by her selection of running mate [Walz], who has been standing up for LGBTQ+ rights, IVF, and a woman’s right to her own body for decades.” —singer/songwriter Taylor Swift
Belly Laughs of the Week
“The [debate] challenge for the vice president is really twofold. One, sometimes knowing the facts too well gets in the way of giving the broader vision. … But the other challenge is the bar for her is so much higher because the bar for Trump is so low.” —Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA)
“What I do offer is a new generation of leadership for our country.” —Kamala Harris
Washington appears to have played down speculation about allowing Ukraine to expand the use of long-range NATO missiles inside Russia following Moscow’s warning. However, the Democratic Party’s “October surprise” may still be in the works, warns ex-US Army psychological warfare officer and State Department counterterrorism analyst Scott Bennett.
Hoover Institution senior fellow Victor Davis Hanson reacts to Attorney General Merrick Garland’s remarks about DOJ impartiality on ‘Kudlow.’ #foxbusiness #kudlow
A trader reacts after the closing bell of the New York Stock Exchange on November 5, 2008.REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Jon Wolfenbarger warns of a potential 70% drop ahead for the S&P 500.
Despite record highs, the market faces risks from a deteriorating labor market.
Wolfenbarger shared 5 signs of a job market heading towards recession.
To Jon Wolfenbarger, the stock market’s success and the labor market’s recent deterioration don’t seem to add up.
As of market close on Friday, the S&P 500 sat at 5,626, just below record highs. And yet, the unemployment rate continues to inch up, job openings continue to fall, and payroll data continue to underwhelm.
The short explanation for this discrepancy is investor hype around artificial intelligence and continued hope for an economic soft landing, according to Wolfenbarger, the founder of investing newsletter BullAndBearProfits.com and former investment banker at JPMorgan and Merrill Lynch.
But how long that enthusiasm can continue to outweigh declining labor market indicators remains to be seen. In a pair of notes this month, Wolfenbarger has laid out several pieces of evidence from job market data showing the outlook continuing to worsen, threatening to throw the economy into recession and lampoon the market’s soft-landing hopes.
The first is declining job openings, which are down to 7.6 million from 2022 highs above 12 million. Since data started being collected in December 2000, the significant declines in job openings in 2001, 2008, and 2020 were all accompanied by recessions. While openings have fallen a lot, however, they are still above pre-COVID levels and may just be normalizing after pandemic stimulus has dried up.
Still, job openings data has had an impressively close correlation to stock market performance since 2000. This suggests the amount of job openings may have to turn around soon, or the market may be ahead of itself and in for a correction.
“Historically, there’s been a strong relationship between JOLTS openings (orange line) and the S&P 500 (blue line), although there has been a major disconnect during the AI-driven rally of the past two years,” Wolfenbarger wrote in a September 9 note.
BullAndBearProfits.com
Another sign Wolfenbarger shared showing the labor market is turning sour is the Kansas City Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Index, which is a composite of 24 job market indicators. The last three times is has climbed above 0.5 and then declined again below that level, the economy has gone into recession.
The indicator sits at 0.53 right now, down from 1.4 in May 2022.
BullAndBearProfits.com
Third, the year-over-year percentage change in the employment level, or number of people employed. It just hit 0%, and negative year-over-year growth has typically coincided with recessions over the last several decades, Wolfenbarger said.
BullAndBearProfits.com
While the employment growth is softening, there has also been a rise in the amount of part-time employees who cite economic reasons for taking part-time roles. Part-time employment levels usually surge during recessions, though current growth levels are not yet as pronounced as in prior downturns.
BullAndBearProfits.com
Finally, in a September 2 note, Wolfenbarger shared a chart from Bank of America showing the decline in private job growth as a share of all job growth. The chart excludes the healthcare and education sectors, which are typically immune to economic downturns. Private job growth is an important measure because it takes government payroll growth out of the equation, which is also resistant to business cycles.
BullAndBearProfits.com
Wolfenbarger’s views in context
Wolfenbarger sees the potential for severe downside for stocks. In an email to Business Insider on Friday, he confirmed that he continues to see a drop of as much as 70% in the S&P 500 as plausible.
He cites John Hussman’s valuation metric of the market-cap of non-financial stocks-to-the gross value-added of those stocks. With the measure currently at all-time-highs, Hussman said in August that the S&P 500 would have to fall around 70% to get to levels where investors could expect 10% annualized returns over the following decade.
Hussman Funds
It goes without saying that this is an extreme scenario and well outside of consensus on Wall Street. But a market decline of some significance is not out of the question if the economy does continue to soften beyond what investors are comfortable with.
Stocks sold off after the July and August jobs reports came in below expectations. The longer the streak of poor payrolls print extends, the higher the risk of recession will appear to investors, and the sharper potential market declines could be.
The Federal Reserve is expected to start slashing interest rates next week to help the economy land on its feet after an inflation surge, and markets believe the central bank will reduce the benchmark rate by 2.5% by the end of 2025.
The US push to silence alternative voices “seems like desperation,” the former aide to Joe Biden has said
Washington is targeting RT because the news network has presented the facts that the conflict in Ukraine is a proxy war being fought by the US and NATO against Russia, RT contributor Tara Reade, a former aide to Joe Biden, has said.
On Thursday, the US announced a new round of sanctions against RT, with James Rubin, head of the State Department’s Global Engagement Center (GEC), accusing the news organization of undermining support for Ukraine globally.
”One of the reasons… why so much of the world has not been as fully supportive of Ukraine as one might expect… is because of the broad scope and reach of RT,” Rubin claimed.
Ironically, the accusations only enhance RT’s reputation as a “really good journalistic media corporation” that effectively reaches its audience, Reade said in an interview on Thursday. “I think this is unprecedented what happened… it shows how successful RT has been.”
The effort to silence RT “indicates that it poses a threat to the narrative of the military-industrial complex and the intelligence community,” Reade said.
“They are trying to criminalize journalism,” Reade said. “It is really frightening, and hope every journalist pays attention. Because it may be RT this week, but it may be any other news outlet that simply does not hold the line the next time.”
Washington is suppressing free speech and essentially “trying to criminalize thought” in an attempt to “siphon the message to their point of view while silencing international voices,” she added.
They are trying to control and consolidate their power. And they are losing their power. To me, it seems like desperation.
RT is reporting facts that undermine the Western narrative, and “And the truth is, this is a proxy war that the US and NATO are fighting against Russia via Ukraine,” she added. “It’s all about the territory, it’s all about stripping Ukraine of its resources.”
US Senator Lindsey Graham has openly stated that Ukraine’s “trillions of dollars’ worth of minerals” are of interest to the US as he lobbied for more military aid to Kiev earlier this month.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now the deputy chair of the National Security Council, said a key reason for the West’s focus on Donbass is its vast mineral wealth. He noted that around half of Ukraine’s estimated $14.8 trillion mineral resource base is located in the region. This natural wealth is precisely why Ukraine’s Western sponsors urge Kiev to “wage war to the last Ukrainian,” Medvedev claimed.
Transgender thinking has infected economics too, with politicians applying the same wishes-can-reshape-reality thinking as they hike the minimum wage. They’ve decided if they say workers are worth $15 a hour, then they will be. But if such wishing really did make it so, why not hike it to $25 an hour? Or $50? Or as this video (from 7 years back) asks, why not $100?
It’s because in the real world, the minimum wage is actually an employment ban on anyone who can’t bring that amount of value to their employer. Inexperienced workers, handicapped workers, or elderly workers who might work at a slower gear could all be barred from employment. And if we made the minimum wage $100 an hour, that would ban a lot of people. But why is it okay when we ban smaller numbers of people at $15 a hour? And how did it become the government’s role to decide not simply whether or not people should be allowed to offer their labor at a lower rate, but whether they should be allowed to work at all?
While we don’t understand all that bacteria and viruses might have done before the Fall into sin, some of their current useful functions give us some clues.
These are 4 really good arguments to stack on top of the foundational truth that our lives are given by God, and therefore are not our own to dispose of as we would. As He has said, don’t murder.
There’s an old joke about a band of scientists and researchers who set out to scale Mount Intellect, rising up from the valleys of ignorance. They scrape their way slowly up, and as they finally summit the highest peak, they find a band of theologians who have been sitting there for centuries.
God made us for marriage, for commitment, and thus that’s so much better for us than “shacking up.” And now some psychologists have discovered and explained how making the choice to commit is better for us. Welcome to the summit, gentlemen.
Doctors create an average of 15 embryos in a single round of IVF. Unfortunately, only 3-7% of all created embryos result in the live birth of a child.
The outcomes of IVF are not neutral. Children born through IVF have a higher likelihood of cancer, autism, minor cleft pallet, or a congenital heart defect.
A diagnosis or season of infertility does not mean that a couple will never have children; only that it may require more work and time than they initially expected.
God forbids covetousness in the 10th Commandment, and one powerful way to counter temptation in this direction is to count our blessings. So, yes, many are worse off than they were just 5 years ago. But even the struggling Gen Z is probably doing a lot better than their grandparents were in the 70s. This video is American, but there’s a lot of transfer to what’s going on north of the border.
BRENTWOOD, CA — Local woman Tara Maeser told friends she couldn’t believe some people consider a fetus to be a human while also asking everyone to look at her adorable cat, Dave, wearing his new argyle sweater.
“Look at widdle Davey! Isn’t his widdle sweater just the sweetest widdle thing in the world?” Maeser commented. “Anyway… I can’t believe people think an unborn human is a human. It’s just scientifically not a human! Oh, look at Dave! He’s sitting in his iddy-biddy widdle stroller and looks just like a baby!”
Maeser had reportedly been arguing vehemently with pro-life friends this week on whether or not a human fetus was, in fact, human. Pointing to evidence that since a fetus was dependent on the mother to survive, Maeser said there was no way it could be considered an actual human, all the while holding her feline friend, Dave, whom she’d just decked out in a little coat and an adorable pink scarf.
“She told me a fetus wasn’t a human, which is weird because she calls herself a ‘cat-mom’ and is always buying clothes for Dave,” Maeser’s friend Amy Smoot said. “One time she yelled at me for reminding her Dave was a cat and not her actual child.”
At publishing time, Maeser had last been seen arguing with a friend over whether or not a human could be ‘illegal’ all the while screaming for the arrest of people who share memes she disagrees with.
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